Punjab and Uttar Pradesh elections: Different strategies and different results.

Is this turban worn correctly?

In the elections in five States, BJP has won 4 States and remained lost in 5th to AAP in Punjab. I will analyse Uttar Pradesh and Punjab and touch Uttrakhand a little as I have no clue about remaining Manipur and Goa. Punjab first:

Elections are won on the strength of five components:

1. Popular Votes, 2. Unpopular Votes (anti-incumbancy) 3. Money Power 4. Muscle Power 5. Random Factor.

In Punjab, State Congress Party President Navjot Singh Sidhu, Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi, and former Chief Ministers Capt. Amarinder Singh, Sukhbir Singh Badal, Prakash Singh Badal have all lost.

Punjab voted for ‘Old Monk’ Bhagwant Mann, a sitting Member of Parliament, who won State Election as well by a convincing margin of over fifty thousand votes.

Punjab is politically controlled by six families. While they are opposed to each other politically, the are intertwined with each other by marriages etc. Irrespective of the party in governance, these families are always under protection from the Government.

It appears that all five factors went in favour of AAP. The Congress Party which was in power, let the muscle power roam free, hoping, it will help them, won them 13 seats only. The inexperienced Chief Minister fought from 2 seats and lost both.

Popular Votes were in favour of dark horse AAP on the strength of huge advertising campaigns funded by Delhi Government of AAP. They have tied up with muscle power and money Power. The last one has special element in Punjab which is similar to Maharashtra. Hope you get the hint.

The last factor was unpopularity among the voters which resulted in loss of all stalwarts i.e. former Chief Ministers and present CM as well.

The muscle power is a two edged sword. While it gets influence it also creates huge unpopular Votes. The Jat Sikh group which constitute about 20% of votes, is historically oppressive group. Always flexing muscle without reason and harrassing people especially the 39% Ramgadia and other historically weaker sections who are not so weak economically but are still socially oppressed.

The Akali Dal stitched last minute alliance with BSP hoping to rein in oppressed group but apparently failed. The present Chief Minister who is possibly Crypto Christian, was installed to rein in this group but apparently had no base in that group.

Rout of BJP:

BJP fought this election in alliance with Caption Amrinder Singh, the deposed Chief Minister who was shunted out of Congress at last minute. He is one of the six families, mentioned in the beginnin. Remember the Unpopular Votes which the press in India has given a fancy name Anti-incumbancy. The Governments which do not perform for the people become unpopular. Amrinder was head of one such Government. Prior to him BJP was in alliance with Akali Dal for more than ten years in power and performing nothing for people. This made BJP itself unpopular.

Remember BJP has two Members of Parliament from Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur in Punjab. This should translate into 16-18 seats in State Elections but all it got was 2 seats.

A weak Party:

The BJP in Punjab is the weakest of all parties. It’s sitting MLA’s are disrobed in public and it is helpless. The convoy of Prime Minister is stopped mid way by muscle power and Central Government is helpless. The helplessness of Central Government is visible in Maharashtra and west Bengal where it is unable to support its followers. The net result is that while Congress manages to win 13 seats despite anti-incumbancy, BJP is actually routed and has won two seats due to some local, random Factor.

Uttar Pradesh:

Now look at Uttar Pradesh. It is a example in exact reverse. It came to power in 2017 just after demonitisation when the money Power was completely vanished. Just before this election raid by Income Tax resulted in a haul of over 230 Crore illegal cash allegedly belonging to Samajwadi Party suppoter.

In past five years, the Yogi Government has crushed muscle power in Uttar Pradesh. He is hugely popular, more then the cinema stars, and has created a pro incumbancy for his Government. But he had to face his telly go down from over 300 seats to about 266. The reason for this loss was anti-incumbancy of his MLAs. Yogi’s two Ministers lost elections, namely Keshav Prasad Mourya and Upendra Tiwari.

This shows that Yogi won despite poor decisions of BJP which failed to drop non performing Legislative Members who did not keep them connected with people. Keshav Mourya is glaring example as he had not been keeping good health and had marriage of a progeny which kept him occupied in past several years. Of course Corona too kept people indoors, except Yogi himself who visited every city even during Corona pandemic to ensure relief work.

Press is attributing the victory in Uttar Pradesh to free distribution of ration(food) during pandemic is missing woods for trees. It is a combination of factors. No single factor can make a Government win. The example of Punjab is writ large where exactly opposite strategy or complete lack of it caused it’s rout.

Uttrakhand:

Uttrakhand is the classic example of what is wrong with BJP/RSS cadres. They produce honest, hard-working, loyal and down to earth followers but they do not have leaders. Narendra Modi became one after he became Chief Minister of Gujarat. Today BJP has won 47 (down from 57) seats to form the Government again in Uttarakhand. Remember that in this hill States, the demographic spread is such that victory and defeat means a difference of few hundred votes.

BJP has changed three chief ministers in Uttarakhand in past one year. The big question is why the first one was allowed free reign for 4 years or so if he was incompetent? Now the sitting Chief Minister has lost his election along with the leader of Congress who was the challenger namely Harish Rawat. Both have lost!!!

Final word:

Too much credit is given to BJP for it’s grand wins. I would say it is lucky and it has no opposition on the ground except the press. It is winning despite its gross failures and incompetence. Two of it’s most popular Chief Ministers namely Yogi Aditya Nath and Hemant Bisva Sarma are not from BJP/RSS ranks. Those who rose from ranks have lost elections like Shivraj Singh Chouhan in M.P. and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh. Chouhan came to power with engineering and defective in Congress via Jyotiraditya Scindia.

To quote Harish Salve, ” Congress Party is collapsing faster than the expansion of BJP”.

BJP has to pull it’s socks and find people who know administration. Merely winning elections is not enough. It needs CEOs who can run governments and perform. Presently BJP can’t even find legal officers in Courts to represent it. It has to rely on people from different ideology to represent it. See the present Attorney General or his predecessors. Both had nothing to do with BJP, entire life.

This is the state of affairs after nearly 8 years in Government. If the change doesn’t happen in BJP, India will soon see a musical chair governments of coalitions in which BJP may have no role to play as a pariah party to all. AAP win in Punjab is a writing on the wall.

Ukraine crises and China in Galwan Valley:

Ukraine

Chinese and Indian Army is standing face to face in the foothills of Himalaya for last two years. China violated the no man’s land and moved forward till it was stopped by India Army. Clashes between the two armies which took place on 15 June 2020

Ladakh, Line of Actual Control, Aksai Chin, Sikkim, Ngari Prefecture, Shigatse are the places where both armies stand eye ball to eye ball. 14 rounds of talks have failed because China refuses to restore status que.

However except guarded statement that both countries should act with restraint, it was normal time for the world. Since USA’s favorite country, China was aggressive, it was all OK.

Special Operation in Ukraine:

As Russian troops carry out “special military operations” against Ukraine to “demilitarise” the country. The Ukrainian government is pleading with all major powers to intervene and stop the Russian advance. The European Union and USA has done precious little to extend actual help to Ukraine. They have imposed more financial sanctions against Russia but there were already there since 2014 when Crimea was annexed by Russia.

Ukraine’s position with India:

Did Ukraine vote against India in UNO on Kashmir issue and nuclear test issue in 1998?
Did it vote against India’s membership in the Security Council?
3. Did it supply arms to Pakistan and supported Al Qaeda?

Without answering any of above questions or explanation, today the same Ukraine is seeking help from India.

Ambassdor of Ukraine in India making fervent appeal to Prime Minister of India to intervene in crises:

What Russia misses is some leftist media to invent right phrases like WMD or ‘Weapon of Mass destruction’ to justify it’s “Special Operations” in Ukraine.

There is a saying in Punjabi ‘My Dog is Tommy but your dog is just a dog’. This is the situation of the USA and NATO today. After toppling the governments all over the world and installing Dictators under euphemism of “King” in middle East and some other title in other places, it is crying over Ukraine and World Order as if it is a rule or law based order.

It is an unfair world in which one who weilds the stick weilds the power. Russia has recently acquired new sticks like hypersonic missiles like 3M22 Zircon Missile which is targeting USA as this moment and like proverbial pistol on the temple, it has immobilized USA and NATO.

According to Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid “the Russian attack on Ukraine is a violation of the world order and Israel condemns it. Israel is ready to give humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Israel knew many wars. War is not the way to solve conflicts.” He said in a statement issued on Thursday. Prime Minister of Israel did not denounce Russia but expressed hope that “Like everyone else, we pray for peace and calm in Ukraine, and still hope that dialogue will lead to a resolution,” PM Bennett also said that”these are difficult and tragic moments, and our hearts are with the civilians that, through no fault of their own, have been thrust into this situation. Israel will mobilize to extend humanitarian aid as needed.”

Will the World Order which acted as an empire of USA and NATO survive after Ukraine crises? There is very little hope that it will. And that is the reason for guarded posturing by all countries except NATO.

Jihad with hizab.

Hizab Controversy in Karnataka:

On February 5 the Karnataka Education Department has directed educational institutions in the State to follow the dress code decided by the college’s development board or, in case of no such dress code, “students can wear dress which will not affect equality, integrity and law and order”.

The hijab controversy started last month after some girl students of Udupi Government Pre-University College wearing hijab entered the college campus, who were not allowed to attend classes. The college authorities say that the girl students who used to come without hijab earlier have suddenly started coming in hijab.

The hizab protest was started by 10 girls claiming right to wear hijab while 75 other Muslim students followed the order on dress code. Politics erupted over the issue.

Now it turns out that all the students had at the time of admission signed consent forms to agree to abide by the rules of Uniforms. See this discussion:

So what made them changed their mind?

Actually the question is wrong. A true Muslim is bound by Taqlid. He or she is not supposed to deliberate or apply mind. Muslim has to obey the Imam or Emir-ul-momin which translates into Comander of Muslims.

According to the Zawziah Institute of Islamic Study:

“Scholars and linguists agree that the term taql•d has its etymology, its origin, in the Arabic word, qallada; which means: “To place a collar ( qilådah) around the neck.” The reason it is termed as such is that the one making taql•d – the muqallid – resigns his affair to the one he is performing taql•d of. Thus he is, so to speak, like someone being ‘led by the collar’.”

Even otherwise a girl is half a person as per holy Quran. Her testimony is of half value. Her inheritance is half. She is not permitted to enter mosque etc.

It is also there in reports that notorious Popular Front of India (PFI) and Jamayat-e-Islami has instigated these girls to insist of hizab inside class rooms.

The idea is create a distance between Muslims and non muslims. To show off the special identity. On top of it, play the victim card if denied.

It is not very different from maintenance of a distance from Kaafir (non-believer) and to keep trouble brewing for Kaafir Government by way of jihad or struggle to claim religious rights.

In any case, while Holy prophet had proclaimed that he was last prophet but now every Imam is virtually acting like prophet by making rules for the Muslims which did not exist earlier. Hizab is such rule.

Notice this picture:

This person in red tie, in the image is Al Hussein bin Abdullah II, King of Jordan with his Family who is the 41st Generation direct descendant of Prophet Mohammad.
Notice, no hijab.

But then they do not claim to be prophet like Imams and Ulema of India.

Here is extract from Holy Quran:

[8.12] When your Lord revealed to the angels: I am with you, therefore make firm those who believe. I will cast terror into the hearts of those who disbelieve. Therefore strike off their heads and strike off every fingertip of them.
[8.13] This is because they acted adversely to Allah and His Apostle; and whoever acts adversely to Allah and His Apostle– then surely Allah is severe in requiting (evil).

British India’s announcement to maintain peace with India.

Keep a bit of India.

When the British were leaving India, Churchill insisted the then viceroys to keep a bit of India. (Read Transfer of Power Papers as extracted by Wali Khan in his book ”Facts are facts.”) His wish was duly complied.

To begin with on 14 June 1945 Lord Wavell announced a plan for a new Executive Council in which all members except the Viceroy and the Commander in Chief would be Indians. This executive council was to be a temporary measure until a new permanent constitution could be agreed upon and come into force.

At the same time, Mohammed Ali Jinnah, a non practicing Muslim, who was being cultivated as a Muslim Leader and sole representative of Muslims, was told to be ready for partition of India. According to Wavell, he feared a mutiny in Army and he prepared a plan to relocate all British personal to Karachi which was to be retained as British India under the British stooge Jinnah. The existing parties representing Muslims in Punjab and today’s KPK were sidelined rather forced to accept Jinnah as their leader, even though they were running popular Governments. This British India was named Pakistan.

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Happy New Year 2022

Happy New Year 2022.

My Best Wishes to all:


समानी व आकूति: समाना ह्रदयानि व:।
समानमस्तु वो मनो यथा व: सुसहासति॥

 samānī va ākūti: samānā hradayāni va:।
samānamastu vo mano yathā va: susahāsati॥

Hindi translation 

 हमारा उद्देश्य एक हो,  हमारी भावनाएँ सुसंगत हो। हमारे विचार एकत्रित हो।

जैसे  इस विश्व के, ब्रह्मांड के विभिन्न पहलुओं अौर क्रियाकलापों में तारत्मयता  अौर एकता है ॥

English translation

 United be your purpose, harmonious be your feelings, collected be your mind, in the same way as all the various aspects of the universe exist in togetherness, wholeness.

All the best to all those who have survived 2020 and 2021.