India 2019: Will Narendra Modi Win?

A political analysis of democracy in India

India will undertake the largest democratic electoral exercise on Earth starting in April 2019. It is the 16th exercise in last 70 years of it’s independence. At least seven times out of those 16 (in 1989, 1991, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2009), that is in last 30 years preceding 2014 no single party attained clear majority in Parliament.

Life is a circle. So is politics. It often appears that new things are happening but if a person has lived long enough, the things are repetitive. In last about 70 years, the democracy in India has evolved into a noisy arrangement of governance and misgovernance. This book looks into past from the prism of today.

It is also a political discussion about issues and factors which will influence the General Elections being held in India and evaluates the prospects of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, the BJP, winning again in 2019.
It is not a report card of performance of the Modi Government. In fact politics is not just numbers and democracy is not just about issues and performance. Had it been so, elections would have been far more predictable than seasons. Not that seasons are all that predictable in this era of climate change, but at least we know what to expect.
It is a summary of Deja Vu moments in Indian politics and the various factors of democracy in India especially the caste, secularism, communism, communalism and multitude of political parties. What to expect and what to analyze for elections in 2019?

A must read book for any one born after 1990, when real democracy started in India. Of course it is also the details as to why the so called democracy in India before 1990 was farcical.
It is neither an adulation of Modi or BJP nor is it a criticism of Congress but an analysis of politics in India. Scan the code with mobile to read:

Click the picture to read at Kindle:

India 2019: Will Narendra Modi Win?

Read excerpts from the book here.

Additional facts about Balakot

The 2019 Balakot airstrike occurred on 26 February 2019, when twelve Mirage 2000H jets along with Sukhoi and other fighter jets of the Indian Air Force crossed the Line of Control in Kashmir to perform an airstrike on Balakot, Khyber Pakhtoon Khan, which was a terrorist training camp inside Pakistan.

Balakot as Mecca of Jihad:

Syed Ahmad Barelvi (1786–1831) was an Indian Muslim revivalist from Raebareli, a part of the historical United Provinces of Agra and Oudh. The epithet Barelvi, denoting place of origin, deriving from Raebareli. He followed Sunni Hanafi jurisprudence. He was the first jihadi who had waged the holy war against then King of Punjab, Maharaja Ranjit Singh. He chose Balakot as the place for war as it had locational advantages. Syed lost and was beheaded on 6 May 1888 and later buried at Balakot itself. This is the picture ofnhis grave at Balakot (from wikipedia):

Picture serves a reminder why dreaded terrorists must be buried in sea and not given a burial like a normal person.

Airstrike on Balakot:

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Excerpts from book of political analysis of democracy.

Excerpts from eBook

India 2019: Will Narendra Modi Win?: (A political analysis of democracy in India) [Kindle Edition]

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The massive illiteracy and poverty of people shook Gandhi as much as his words shook the people who so far had only their luck to curse. Now they knew that their poverty was the evil effect of British Raj.

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The use of technology produces good results but it has one flaw. Technology either gets obsolete very quickly or has diminishing returns each time it is used.

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ambition is not only a genetic disorder but it is more infectious then flue. Ideology is just a dispensable rocket while gaining altitude on the path of ambition.

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Launch of a successful political party requires three things: 1) Money 2) Public heros and 3) Ideology or purpose. As a matter of fact all three ingredients are required throughout the life a party wants to remain in power.

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In other words she had not said anything of significance from which anything about her left or right leanings could be inferred. Far from naivety it showed a personality unhindered by any principle either of morality or otherwise.

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Indira may have been a compromise candidate of CWC but she was not a compromising personality. Negotiation, which is hallmark of democracy was not her suit at all.

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India is perhaps only country in the world where being a woman, trust by others is implicit and automatic.

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She certainly had a kind of Charisma. But then most poisons are also attractive.

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Autocrats are successful people. They are not made out of ordinary performance like a dream merchants. They take decisions but they do not like dissent at all, what to speak of authority of another.

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Democracy was buried under blind stubbornness of Indira.

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A goddess for her admirers, Indira was more of a demon for her critics, who accused her of damaging the civil service and the independent judiciary— and of almost destroying the Constitution during her proclaimed state of national emergency.

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Khalsa means pure and it was name of an army founded by tenth Guru to fight Aurangzeb and to protect Hindus from his islamic conversion war. Every family had to give eldest son for Khalsa, for protection of rest.

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While Independent Bharat started with a balance of Rs. 18,000 crores, the Bharat of 1992 is in debt to the tune of Rs. 4,00,000 crores. The so- called “industrial Revolution”, supposed to have led to the prosperity of the West, was made possible from the post- Plassey loot from Bharat.

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The scientists always attempt to discover order in the apparent disorder in the universe, to find out the principles governing the universe and frame practical rules on the basis of these principles. Chemists discovered that a few elements comprise the entire physical world. Physicists went one step further and showed that even these elements consist only of energy. Today we know that the entire universe is only a form of energy…”

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Survival of the fittest is the law of the jungle. The civilizations have developed not on the basis of this law but by consideration of how the operation of this law will be the least in human life.

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Many influential Congress politicians, including some in the cabinet, have made it clear that they personally dislike anything that smacks of socialism, although they would not defy Nehru openly…..

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India is not just a mere geographic expression or a political entity. India dates back to thousands of years; the boundaries have changed, the politics have changed but still India has remained India. It is the thinking, it is the thought, it is an inner spirituality that makes India.”

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democracy is a work in progress and there is and will always be scope for improvement.

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The formation of parties for a particular community/ caste, ethnicity, religion etc. is a back door entry of feudalism in democracy. But it is permissible in India. Any attempt to curtail it would result in mass protests and Satyagraha.

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Terrorism is no different from barbarism. It is a feudal mind set arising from the notion of ‘might is right’.

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For human mind needs no external help unless it is in trouble. Best is to keep fermenting trouble.

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The Muslims who were left in India either by choice or circumstances were mostly the ‘rump’— petty shopkeepers, self- employed daily wagers like rickshaw pullers, tonga drivers, masons, carpenters, and low- rung government employees like peons, clerks, drivers. They were mostly conservative, lacking social or political awareness, and led miserable insular lives with little or no aspiration.

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When an author is looking out of window, staring a stray cloud in the blue sky, he is working.

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Kings were made by sweat and labour. Varna System ended long back when kings were defeated. British turned the varna system on it’s head for their own advantage and historians have a purpose to hide those stories and keep the melting pot of caste boiling to reap political gains.

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Caste became successor of Varna System which was a political tool. Caste was now a tool of manipulation of groups.

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It is unfortunate that so many Commissions have been appointed but no one has gone into this myth of lower or upper caste, the root cause of disparity and discord. Of course backwardness is there and must be addressed but the fiction of upper and lower must have been discarded publically, by now.

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if Brahmins can become influential by being opportunistic then Dalits too could use opportunism to empower themselves.

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whatever is being done is, obviously wrong. People want to stay backward for now it entitles special privileges. Is it not the time to think again at reducing the backwardness rather than increasing it?

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Marx also suggested solutions for creating a classless society. Some of were progressive income tax; abolition of inheritances and private property; abolition of child labour; free public education; nationalisation of the means of transport and communication; centralisation of credit via a national bank; expansion of publicly owned property etc.

Note – Location 3436

Marx

Note – Location 3436

Marx

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Poverty is breeding ground of bloody revolutions but revolutionary leaders are always born in well off families.

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Only a ruthless can deal with arrogant refusal to follow the rule of law.

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Mamata can have her day. But only till the next collapse of constitutional machinery after next Durga Puja.

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Politicians presume that voters are dead except when elections are around. They suddenly wake up and start doing something to show that they are doing everything. Worst part is that in election rhetoric they make claims as if they are “Master of the Universe” and can do anything but after election, they act like watchman of graveyard, where the relatives of the dead has to take care of the grave and watchman just watches on.

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Manmohan Singh as finance minister in 1991, proved to be good architect. In 2009 people had hoped that he can not be worse than a carpenter as a Prime Minister. But voters are often wrong in democracy, especially when it relates to the character. In this case Manmohan turned out to be watchman of graveyard.

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Democracy should be participatory, aimed at good governance. However in India, like many places, it has become a lucrative business. Political parties are formed to loot the people.

Quora policy of denying advertisement of political books.

Newspapers as new Brahmins:

Election Commission of India has mandated that no political advertisement would be permissible without proper KYC (Know Your Customer). Similarly Government of India has also called upon the Social Media Platforms to ensure that their platform is not used to influence public opinion. In this background I recently published my first political book: India 2019: Will Narendra Modi Win?: (A political analysis of democracy in India) Kindle Edition

I approached Quora for advertisement of book and the campaign was automatically blocked. I sought a review with following request:

“The ad does not promote any political party. It relates to political analysis of elections of India. Please check the sample of book. Therefore it does not fall under the restriction of ECI. Further I have clearly declared that I am not related to any political party. Pleas review and approve.”

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Guidelines issued for war between India and Pakistan

A comical satire:

Process to be followed for any surgical strike here after –

1 – Henceforth, arrange for all proofs of your operations in 3 copies – One for Indians, One for Pakistan and One for Pakistanis within India.

2 – Bring HD quality videos of operations. Appearance of dying terrorists is s MUST in these videos.

3 – Bring at least 25-50 photographs clearly showing site BEFORE and AFTER operation.

4 – Preferably, bring a video with an interview of an eye witness with a 3 copies of printouts with his signature and KYC proofs.

5 – Bring biometric proof of all terrorists claimed to have been killed – Thumbs, Eyes etc.

6 – Bring Photo Identity of all killed terrorists to prove that they were actually not Indians.

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