Media anchors, experts, YouTube commentators would have us believe that the opposition parties in India seem to have no plan against the ruling BJP in 2024. It is plainly incorrect. They have a plan and it is hidden in plain sight. Before evening their plan let me share with you a few facts.
Abdullah is a member of parliament from Srinagar. Do you know how many people voted for him?
The total turn out in abdullah’s constituency was 10%. In other words 90% of people did not vote. Abdullah got more than 5% of votes and became a member of parliament.
USA embroiled in allegations of religious bigotry, racial discrimination and election fraud.
Centre for Democracy, Pluralism and Human Rights, has come out with a startling report on human rights violations in United States of America. According to this report, in recent years, free speech rights and freedom of the press have been eroded and Internet controls have been institutionalized. Voices are suppressed on social media, the academia, as well as the print and broadcast media, and are forced to speak in one voice that matches the opinion of the USA government officials, and as per the new policies to control the internet, which have been put in place by intelligence officials, and masqueraded as policies to advance the free-speech rights of the common people. In general, any opinion that is not part of the approved ‘liberal’ discourse or the approved ‘conservative’ discourse is branded as an ‘extremist’ position, and people with independent positions are hounded out of the public space.
Following are the other shocking highlights of the Report:
1. RACIAL DISCRIMINATION: RACISM IS DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN THE SYSTEM
Structural Racism Built into the State Constitution Some of the provisions in the State Constitution are racist and continue to date, like the Three-Fifths Clause which violates the principle of equality, and the Fugitive Slave Clause which did not permit people to escape slavery.
Three-Fifths Clause (Native Indians, not to be numbered equally but three-fourths)
“Representations and direct taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a term of years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three-fifths of all other persons.”
The 3rd Clause of the 4th Article of the USA Constitution authorizes the enslavers to seize enslaved people:
“No person held to Service or Labour in one State, under the Laws thereof, escaping into another, shall, in Consequence of any Law or Regulation therein, be discharged from such Service or Labour, but shall be delivered up on Claim of the Party to whom such Service or Labour may be due.”
The Constitutions of California and New York states too have racist provisions, which are meant to deny housing and disfranchise Native Americans respectively.
Systemic Issues: Racism and Corruption in the Legal System and Judiciary
The law enforcement agencies, legal system, and the judiciary have all built up a reputation for corruption and racism.
In particular, a harsh law passed in 1994 was designed to ensure that Blacks would face a cruel justice system and long prison terms which would, in turn, benefit the owners of private prisons. Blacks are given more severe punishment by judges for the same crimes.
The composition of the judiciary is racist in nature. Most of the positions are filled by Whites and fewer Blacks, Asians, and Native Americans in proportion to their population. Even Clerkships are not offered to Blacks easily. However, Blacks lead in the number of wrongful convictions.
Racism is Institutionalized in Political Parties
Both the parties have been hypocritical in their conviction to end racism and none of them framed a comprehensive policy to eradicate it. Leaders of both parties have made racist remarks at multiple occasions, venting out their ingrained racism.
Lack of Representation of Minorities in Media and Academia
When a business can’t differentiate between Apple and Oranges, it eventually fails.
The above principle applies even more so in the service industry. The hair cut and shaving cannot be priced the same.
The share price of Zomato has fallen by half. The company is running in losses and is clueless about its Strategy. It is trying to rope in new customers by intensive marketing but is failing to keep existing customers.
To be fair to Zomato, its competitors are doing no better. They are in the same boat and suffering the same fate.
In the elections in five States, BJP has won 4 States and remained lost in 5th to AAP in Punjab. I will analyse Uttar Pradesh and Punjab and touch Uttrakhand a little as I have no clue about remaining Manipur and Goa. Punjab first:
Elections are won on the strength of five components:
1. Popular Votes, 2. Unpopular Votes (anti-incumbancy) 3. Money Power 4. Muscle Power 5. Random Factor.
In Punjab, State Congress Party President Navjot Singh Sidhu, Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi, and former Chief Ministers Capt. Amarinder Singh, Sukhbir Singh Badal, Prakash Singh Badal have all lost.
Punjab voted for ‘Old Monk’ Bhagwant Mann, a sitting Member of Parliament, who won State Election as well by a convincing margin of over fifty thousand votes.
Punjab is politically controlled by six families. While they are opposed to each other politically, the are intertwined with each other by marriages etc. Irrespective of the party in governance, these families are always under protection from the Government.
It appears that all five factors went in favour of AAP. The Congress Party which was in power, let the muscle power roam free, hoping, it will help them, won them 13 seats only. The inexperienced Chief Minister fought from 2 seats and lost both.
Popular Votes were in favour of dark horse AAP on the strength of huge advertising campaigns funded by Delhi Government of AAP. They have tied up with muscle power and money Power. The last one has special element in Punjab which is similar to Maharashtra. Hope you get the hint.
The last factor was unpopularity among the voters which resulted in loss of all stalwarts i.e. former Chief Ministers and present CM as well.
The muscle power is a two edged sword. While it gets influence it also creates huge unpopular Votes. The Jat Sikh group which constitute about 20% of votes, is historically oppressive group. Always flexing muscle without reason and harrassing people especially the 39% Ramgadia and other historically weaker sections who are not so weak economically but are still socially oppressed.
The Akali Dal stitched last minute alliance with BSP hoping to rein in oppressed group but apparently failed. The present Chief Minister who is possibly Crypto Christian, was installed to rein in this group but apparently had no base in that group.
Rout of BJP:
BJP fought this election in alliance with Caption Amrinder Singh, the deposed Chief Minister who was shunted out of Congress at last minute. He is one of the six families, mentioned in the beginnin. Remember the Unpopular Votes which the press in India has given a fancy name Anti-incumbancy. The Governments which do not perform for the people become unpopular. Amrinder was head of one such Government. Prior to him BJP was in alliance with Akali Dal for more than ten years in power and performing nothing for people. This made BJP itself unpopular.
Remember BJP has two Members of Parliament from Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur in Punjab. This should translate into 16-18 seats in State Elections but all it got was 2 seats.
A weak Party:
The BJP in Punjab is the weakest of all parties. It’s sitting MLA’s are disrobed in public and it is helpless. The convoy of Prime Minister is stopped mid way by muscle power and Central Government is helpless. The helplessness of Central Government is visible in Maharashtra and west Bengal where it is unable to support its followers. The net result is that while Congress manages to win 13 seats despite anti-incumbancy, BJP is actually routed and has won two seats due to some local, random Factor.
Uttar Pradesh:
Now look at Uttar Pradesh. It is a example in exact reverse. It came to power in 2017 just after demonitisation when the money Power was completely vanished. Just before this election raid by Income Tax resulted in a haul of over 230 Crore illegal cash allegedly belonging to Samajwadi Party suppoter.
In past five years, the Yogi Government has crushed muscle power in Uttar Pradesh. He is hugely popular, more then the cinema stars, and has created a pro incumbancy for his Government. But he had to face his telly go down from over 300 seats to about 266. The reason for this loss was anti-incumbancy of his MLAs. Yogi’s two Ministers lost elections, namely Keshav Prasad Mourya and Upendra Tiwari.
This shows that Yogi won despite poor decisions of BJP which failed to drop non performing Legislative Members who did not keep them connected with people. Keshav Mourya is glaring example as he had not been keeping good health and had marriage of a progeny which kept him occupied in past several years. Of course Corona too kept people indoors, except Yogi himself who visited every city even during Corona pandemic to ensure relief work.
Press is attributing the victory in Uttar Pradesh to free distribution of ration(food) during pandemic is missing woods for trees. It is a combination of factors. No single factor can make a Government win. The example of Punjab is writ large where exactly opposite strategy or complete lack of it caused it’s rout.
Uttrakhand:
Uttrakhand is the classic example of what is wrong with BJP/RSS cadres. They produce honest, hard-working, loyal and down to earth followers but they do not have leaders. Narendra Modi became one after he became Chief Minister of Gujarat. Today BJP has won 47 (down from 57) seats to form the Government again in Uttarakhand. Remember that in this hill States, the demographic spread is such that victory and defeat means a difference of few hundred votes.
BJP has changed three chief ministers in Uttarakhand in past one year. The big question is why the first one was allowed free reign for 4 years or so if he was incompetent? Now the sitting Chief Minister has lost his election along with the leader of Congress who was the challenger namely Harish Rawat. Both have lost!!!
Final word:
Too much credit is given to BJP for it’s grand wins. I would say it is lucky and it has no opposition on the ground except the press. It is winning despite its gross failures and incompetence. Two of it’s most popular Chief Ministers namely Yogi Aditya Nath and Hemant Bisva Sarma are not from BJP/RSS ranks. Those who rose from ranks have lost elections like Shivraj Singh Chouhan in M.P. and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh. Chouhan came to power with engineering and defective in Congress via Jyotiraditya Scindia.
To quote Harish Salve, ” Congress Party is collapsing faster than the expansion of BJP”.
BJP has to pull it’s socks and find people who know administration. Merely winning elections is not enough. It needs CEOs who can run governments and perform. Presently BJP can’t even find legal officers in Courts to represent it. It has to rely on people from different ideology to represent it. See the present Attorney General or his predecessors. Both had nothing to do with BJP, entire life.
This is the state of affairs after nearly 8 years in Government. If the change doesn’t happen in BJP, India will soon see a musical chair governments of coalitions in which BJP may have no role to play as a pariah party to all. AAP win in Punjab is a writing on the wall.
Chinese and Indian Army is standing face to face in the foothills of Himalaya for last two years. China violated the no man’s land and moved forward till it was stopped by India Army. Clashes between the two armies which took place on 15 June 2020
Ladakh, Line of Actual Control, Aksai Chin, Sikkim, Ngari Prefecture, Shigatse are the places where both armies stand eye ball to eye ball. 14 rounds of talks have failed because China refuses to restore status que.
However except guarded statement that both countries should act with restraint, it was normal time for the world. Since USA’s favorite country, China was aggressive, it was all OK.
Special Operation in Ukraine:
As Russian troops carry out “special military operations” against Ukraine to “demilitarise” the country. The Ukrainian government is pleading with all major powers to intervene and stop the Russian advance. The European Union and USA has done precious little to extend actual help to Ukraine. They have imposed more financial sanctions against Russia but there were already there since 2014 when Crimea was annexed by Russia.
Ukraine’s position with India:
Did Ukraine vote against India in UNO on Kashmir issue and nuclear test issue in 1998? Did it vote against India’s membership in the Security Council? 3. Did it supply arms to Pakistan and supported Al Qaeda?
Without answering any of above questions or explanation, today the same Ukraine is seeking help from India.
Ambassdor of Ukraine in India making fervent appeal to Prime Minister of India to intervene in crises:
What Russia misses is some leftist media to invent right phrases like WMD or ‘Weapon of Mass destruction’ to justify it’s “Special Operations” in Ukraine.
There is a saying in Punjabi ‘My Dog is Tommy but your dog is just a dog’. This is the situation of the USA and NATO today. After toppling the governments all over the world and installing Dictators under euphemism of “King” in middle East and some other title in other places, it is crying over Ukraine and World Order as if it is a rule or law based order.
It is an unfair world in which one who weilds the stick weilds the power. Russia has recently acquired new sticks like hypersonic missiles like 3M22 Zircon Missile which is targeting USA as this moment and like proverbial pistol on the temple, it has immobilized USA and NATO.
According to Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid “the Russian attack on Ukraine is a violation of the world order and Israel condemns it. Israel is ready to give humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Israel knew many wars. War is not the way to solve conflicts.” He said in a statement issued on Thursday. Prime Minister of Israel did not denounce Russia but expressed hope that “Like everyone else, we pray for peace and calm in Ukraine, and still hope that dialogue will lead to a resolution,” PM Bennett also said that”these are difficult and tragic moments, and our hearts are with the civilians that, through no fault of their own, have been thrust into this situation. Israel will mobilize to extend humanitarian aid as needed.”
Will the World Order which acted as an empire of USA and NATO survive after Ukraine crises? There is very little hope that it will. And that is the reason for guarded posturing by all countries except NATO.
Sandeep Bhalla's Blog 