Media anchors, experts, YouTube commentators would have us believe that the opposition parties in India seem to have no plan against the ruling BJP in 2024. It is plainly incorrect. They have a plan and it is hidden in plain sight. Before evening their plan let me share with you a few facts.
Abdullah is a member of parliament from Srinagar. Do you know how many people voted for him?
The total turn out in abdullah’s constituency was 10%. In other words 90% of people did not vote. Abdullah got more than 5% of votes and became a member of parliament.
This is the plan of the opposition parties. India must be the only democratic country where over 70% people come out and vote. Till 1990 this percentage never crossed 50%. In USA in the last election held two years earlier the voting percentage was hardly more than 50%.
The biggest hurdle in any election is convincing people to vote for you. Very few people are committed voters for a party. If the voting percentage falls, it is the general people who do not vote. Committed voters always come out and vote as per their commitment.
Plan of opposition parties.
The plan of opposition parties is obvious. They want only committed voters to come out and vote. They have the largest share of committed voters. About 20% of voters from the peaceful community are committed against BJP and would vote for any party who can possibly win. We saw this in recent elections in Uttar Pradesh how the entire block of the vote was transferred to the Samajwadi party but it could not be as successful as it wanted to be because the voting percentage was about 70%. It was slightly less than the voting percentage in 2017 by a fraction yet it was a great help for the Samajwadi party.
To reduce voting percentage it is necessary to instill fear in the minds of people. Just like Kashmir valley. Therefore the plan is to organise violence and rioting. Arsoning public and private property is also a part of the plan.
The idea is to shake the confidence of the public to come out of their homes. This atmosphere was successfully created in Kashmir and West Bengal. It was recently replicated in Punjab. Now the opposition parties want to take it to Pan India.
I cannot give any advice as to how to handle the situation but it appears that the government is aware of this development and it is for this reason it has been retracing its steps from time to time to avoid any flare up. Strong police action always results in few atrocities on innocent bystanders. This creates new victims who are now motivated to protest along side protesters.
However the policy of retracing step has its limits and very soon the authorities would find them heating the wall and there will be no space to step back. It is high time that some review of the policy may be undertaken especially for a place like Bihar which is notorious for its lawlessness.
It must be remembered that if there is no rule of law there is no governance and without governance, there is no government.