In the elections in five States, BJP has won 4 States and remained lost in 5th to AAP in Punjab. I will analyse Uttar Pradesh and Punjab and touch Uttrakhand a little as I have no clue about remaining Manipur and Goa. Punjab first:
Elections are won on the strength of five components:
1. Popular Votes, 2. Unpopular Votes (anti-incumbancy) 3. Money Power 4. Muscle Power 5. Random Factor.
In Punjab, State Congress Party President Navjot Singh Sidhu, Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi, and former Chief Ministers Capt. Amarinder Singh, Sukhbir Singh Badal, Prakash Singh Badal have all lost.
Punjab voted for ‘Old Monk’ Bhagwant Mann, a sitting Member of Parliament, who won State Election as well by a convincing margin of over fifty thousand votes.
Punjab is politically controlled by six families. While they are opposed to each other politically, the are intertwined with each other by marriages etc. Irrespective of the party in governance, these families are always under protection from the Government.
It appears that all five factors went in favour of AAP. The Congress Party which was in power, let the muscle power roam free, hoping, it will help them, won them 13 seats only. The inexperienced Chief Minister fought from 2 seats and lost both.
Popular Votes were in favour of dark horse AAP on the strength of huge advertising campaigns funded by Delhi Government of AAP. They have tied up with muscle power and money Power. The last one has special element in Punjab which is similar to Maharashtra. Hope you get the hint.
The last factor was unpopularity among the voters which resulted in loss of all stalwarts i.e. former Chief Ministers and present CM as well.
The muscle power is a two edged sword. While it gets influence it also creates huge unpopular Votes. The Jat Sikh group which constitute about 20% of votes, is historically oppressive group. Always flexing muscle without reason and harrassing people especially the 39% Ramgadia and other historically weaker sections who are not so weak economically but are still socially oppressed.
The Akali Dal stitched last minute alliance with BSP hoping to rein in oppressed group but apparently failed. The present Chief Minister who is possibly Crypto Christian, was installed to rein in this group but apparently had no base in that group.
Rout of BJP:
BJP fought this election in alliance with Caption Amrinder Singh, the deposed Chief Minister who was shunted out of Congress at last minute. He is one of the six families, mentioned in the beginnin. Remember the Unpopular Votes which the press in India has given a fancy name Anti-incumbancy. The Governments which do not perform for the people become unpopular. Amrinder was head of one such Government. Prior to him BJP was in alliance with Akali Dal for more than ten years in power and performing nothing for people. This made BJP itself unpopular.
Remember BJP has two Members of Parliament from Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur in Punjab. This should translate into 16-18 seats in State Elections but all it got was 2 seats.
A weak Party:
The BJP in Punjab is the weakest of all parties. It’s sitting MLA’s are disrobed in public and it is helpless. The convoy of Prime Minister is stopped mid way by muscle power and Central Government is helpless. The helplessness of Central Government is visible in Maharashtra and west Bengal where it is unable to support its followers. The net result is that while Congress manages to win 13 seats despite anti-incumbancy, BJP is actually routed and has won two seats due to some local, random Factor.
Now look at Uttar Pradesh. It is a example in exact reverse. It came to power in 2017 just after demonitisation when the money Power was completely vanished. Just before this election raid by Income Tax resulted in a haul of over 230 Crore illegal cash allegedly belonging to Samajwadi Party suppoter.
In past five years, the Yogi Government has crushed muscle power in Uttar Pradesh. He is hugely popular, more then the cinema stars, and has created a pro incumbancy for his Government. But he had to face his telly go down from over 300 seats to about 266. The reason for this loss was anti-incumbancy of his MLAs. Yogi’s two Ministers lost elections, namely Keshav Prasad Mourya and Upendra Tiwari.
This shows that Yogi won despite poor decisions of BJP which failed to drop non performing Legislative Members who did not keep them connected with people. Keshav Mourya is glaring example as he had not been keeping good health and had marriage of a progeny which kept him occupied in past several years. Of course Corona too kept people indoors, except Yogi himself who visited every city even during Corona pandemic to ensure relief work.
Press is attributing the victory in Uttar Pradesh to free distribution of ration(food) during pandemic is missing woods for trees. It is a combination of factors. No single factor can make a Government win. The example of Punjab is writ large where exactly opposite strategy or complete lack of it caused it’s rout.
Uttrakhand is the classic example of what is wrong with BJP/RSS cadres. They produce honest, hard-working, loyal and down to earth followers but they do not have leaders. Narendra Modi became one after he became Chief Minister of Gujarat. Today BJP has won 47 (down from 57) seats to form the Government again in Uttarakhand. Remember that in this hill States, the demographic spread is such that victory and defeat means a difference of few hundred votes.
BJP has changed three chief ministers in Uttarakhand in past one year. The big question is why the first one was allowed free reign for 4 years or so if he was incompetent? Now the sitting Chief Minister has lost his election along with the leader of Congress who was the challenger namely Harish Rawat. Both have lost!!!
Too much credit is given to BJP for it’s grand wins. I would say it is lucky and it has no opposition on the ground except the press. It is winning despite its gross failures and incompetence. Two of it’s most popular Chief Ministers namely Yogi Aditya Nath and Hemant Bisva Sarma are not from BJP/RSS ranks. Those who rose from ranks have lost elections like Shivraj Singh Chouhan in M.P. and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh. Chouhan came to power with engineering and defective in Congress via Jyotiraditya Scindia.
To quote Harish Salve, ” Congress Party is collapsing faster than the expansion of BJP”.
BJP has to pull it’s socks and find people who know administration. Merely winning elections is not enough. It needs CEOs who can run governments and perform. Presently BJP can’t even find legal officers in Courts to represent it. It has to rely on people from different ideology to represent it. See the present Attorney General or his predecessors. Both had nothing to do with BJP, entire life.
This is the state of affairs after nearly 8 years in Government. If the change doesn’t happen in BJP, India will soon see a musical chair governments of coalitions in which BJP may have no role to play as a pariah party to all. AAP win in Punjab is a writing on the wall.