Globalization was never true:
The newspapers are gaga over a statement at recently concluded G20 summit that USA and China will sit and talk and would not impose fresh tariffs, for the present. The last part itself clarify that move is temporary. Actually the Globalization was stillborn. It was pushed out of desperation of stagnant economy of USA and Europe. Now that both have seen an upward trajectory, globalization has taken a back seat. Further the economic cost of low tariffs and high budget deficit has forced USA to rethink. (Sorry to disappoint those who blame Trumpocalapse) USA with its 1 trillion dollor deficit and debt to GDP ratio of 70% is no more a fianancial super power, it was about 30 years back.
History has a tendency to repeat itself.
History repeats due to ignorance of majority of people or not but the fact is that it repeats itself; even if it does not repeat at the same place. It is therefore important that we study history of the entire globe especially of India which is at a war for survival of its civilization for last 1000 years. In many ways, the war is still going on.
Beginning 1990, it was a time for the USA and Europe to push a case for globalization. Tariff barriers were brought down and world trade begun at new level. China benefited from the regime as it abandoned communist economic model and retained it only for the purpose of continuing the authoritarian model of governance. World Trade Organization was created to deal with trade disputes.
Trade war and Failure of WTO:
World is no utopian democracy. It is a feudal/tribal society in which brute power determines who is right. Now we see the policy announcements and it’s turnaround on Twitter. Tariff barriers are being raised gradually. All the shout for free trade is just a noise in the din. So what is history of free trade?
The Economic Super House that was India!
Myth of Free Trade:
Before going further read two books written by two economists. Both post 1990 or post globalization.
First is Paul Bairoch‘s Economic and World History who debunked the European myth and demonstrated that there never was an era of free trade much less its golden era. The truth is that the British and other empires made unjust enrichment from their colonies and the result was that their industries had become uncompetitive after the fall of empire.
This finding shattered the entire edifice of thought process of Europe and deeply punctured the high moral ground they take about enslaving and robbing India (and other colonies) as empirical power.
Lies about British Empire and India:
Not satisfied with these findings a second economist was commissioned to record the world economic history from 00 AD (yes zero AD) till date. His name was Angus Maddison.
About Angus Maddison:
Maddison had joined the Organisation for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC), in 1953 and afterwards became Head of the OEEC Economics Division. In 1963, when the OEEC became the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Maddison became Assistant Director of the Economic Development Department. In 1966–71 he took leave of absence and spent the next 15 years in a series of consulting appointments during which he returned to the OECD for four years.
The finding of Maddison on gdp of the major economies shocked the whole world. See this chart:
In year 1 the gdp of India and China was over 50% of the word gdp and remained so till the Europe came and deceitfully took over India which had just been freed from the yoke of Islamic Imperialists which it had been fighting since 700 AD. India was partially subjugated by Islamic imperialists in 1140 AD onward and a war ensued which continues till date. (Yes in the year 2019 too) After 1700, when British deceitfully split the Maratha Empire and first took over the Mughal which was now vessal of Maratha Empire. Gradually the spread to entire continent like a virus. The gdp of India plummeted.
This finding of Maddison reaffirmed the finding of Bairoch that the entire wealth of Europe built over last 500 years was nothing but a loot from the colonies and it was not trade much less free trade.
Unfortunately, after the above findings came into light, every economist in Europe and USA has chosen to ignore it. There is no debate or discussion.
Britain thinks that Brexit will solve its problems of stagnating economy which now finds it unable to pay the health (NHS) bills and is tightening the belt. USA do not want to foot the bill of NATO, any more. China is more in coloberation with Russia than India is.
So what lessons have we learnt from past?
In next 2 decades, the combine GDP of India or China may again be 50% of world GDP. What they are preparing for?
Apparently their militarisation effort is a reaction based on past loot.