Is it Modi wave or Tsunami

Election for 17th Parliament of India:

Elections of 2019 are sheduled to be held in 7 phases, out of which 5 phases are over. The percentage of voters coming out to vote has been marginally up from 2014 elections. What it means?

As per reports of journalist from Times of India, the polling percentage in 2019 elections so far has been:

Another source tells that in state of Rajasthan, where the BJP had lost its government in December 2018, the polling percentage, in this election had been:

Rajasthan turnout % (2014)
Ganganagar-73.87(73.14)
Bikaner-59.46(58.44)
Churu-64.66(64.49)
Jhunjhunu-60.53(59.32)
Sikar-64.84(60.20)
Jaipur-R-64.34(59.65)
Jaipur-68.26(66.24)
Alwar-65.88(65.25)
Bharatpur-58.52(57.05)
K-Dholpur-54.96(54.59)
Dausa-59.94(61.05)
Nagaur-61.63(59.81)

Thus in Rajsthan, except Dousa, all seats have seen slightly better turnout.

Is this a wave or tsunami:

It is said and is well acknowledged that there are lies, damn lies and statistics. There is nothing better example than these elections. Both sides are quoting the percentage to say or to deny any wave. Is that correct?

Reality lies in real numbers. In 2014 there were 810 million voters. In 2019 there are 900 million voters.

It means that the number of people eligible to vote has risen by whopping 10 percentage. That is huge. In 2014 the rise in voting percentage of 5% made it an anti incumbancy wave. Now if the voting percentage in 2019 elections remain same as 2014, it means 10% more votes have been cast. Any increase of 1% in fact means 1.10%.

Therefore 2019 elections are not in the category of wave. As 2014 was a wave. This election the voter turnout is more than 11% over the 2014 numbers in real terms.

This is a tsunami.

Note that this percentage is in a bad hot weather. The heat wave started much earlier this year. In 2014, even at end on May, the heat wave had not started in Northern India but it is well on its way in 2019. This voter turnout in this bad weather is nothing short of tsunami.

I leave it to political pundits to forecast if it is a vote for change or is it a “pro incumbency wave” as Prime Minister Modi announced in his election rallies.

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