Why Prime Minister Narendra Modi is ready to lose elections in 2019?

In the land of epic Mahabharata, if elections were held today, Narendra Modi will lose next Government in North India. The epic Mahabharata, besides many other actors, is a tale of a blind king namely Dhratrashtra who besides being optically blind is also in blind love for his son Duryodhan. He agrees to every demand of son and eventually there is final battle of Kurushetra in which the King loses all his sons as also the kingdom. This is the shortest version of it.

The problem with history is that no one learns from history. Those who do are tremendously at peace. Apparently PM Modi is not taking any cue from history.

Nehru’s Duryodhan

Jawahar Lal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister also had a Duryodhan. His name was V.K. Krishna Menon. He was the person who cost India a region called “Aksai Chin” in Laddakh in 1962 when China wrenched it from unprepared Indian Army. Appointed as High Commissioner to London, Menon was involved in first scam called “Jeep Scandal“, in which old painted jeeps were purchased as new. As a reward he was elevated to the post of Defence Minister, the post from which he resigned after 1962 war. If the personal secretary of Nehru, M.O.Mathai is believed, he has written in his book that Krishna Menon was a drug abuser and who with the help of drugs was able to set the record of giving longest speech in United Nations.

Indira’s Duryodhan

Indira Gandhi, daughter of Nehru did not have to search, she gave birth to two sons and the younger son Sanjay was the cause of fall of her government in 1977. Sanjay was instrumental in convincing Indira in 1975 to cease control of emergency powers and it was he who exercised unconstitutional authority of Government during emergency.

P.V. Narsimha Rao’s Duryodhan

P.V.Narsimha Rao, aptly called father of economic reforms was Prime Minister from 1991 to 1996. Though he launched economic reforms, despite being running a minority government he could not succeed in elections in 1996. His Duryodhan was Manmohan Sigh, the then finance minister, who introduced reforms but could not manage its short term fall out. Later every one hailed Manmohan Sigh as a brilliant economist. The fact was that reforms were enforced by World Bank as India had “zero” foreign currency to make payment. Today this reserve exceed 400 billion mark.

Manmohan too had Duryodhan

Manmohan Singh was first Prime Minister who never sought a direct election to Lok Sabha and chose to remain elected to Rajya Sabha through indirect election by state legislature. from 2004 to 2014 and ran in one of the most corrupt government in Indian History. Scam after scam. His was a Government called “cash and carry” in which every crony was free to seek favour and carry the money out. Some of these scams are opening up as late as in 2018. As regards economic talent, MMS was the only PM who saw Indian currency Rupee (INR) fall by nearly 45% in his las few years. By this indirect taxation he looted 45% of wealth of every Indian who dont realise it even now. He acted as a remote control in the hands of Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi and bowed before them to sign on dotted lines.

Narendra Modi too has Duryodhan.

Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014 on a massive mandate. Till date he has not been accused of any allegations of corruption. All his Cabinet Ministers are praised for hard work they are putting in. He has brought in second generation of economic reforms. But people are unhappy with the management of one ministry. Infact his own party men are telling how unhappy they are with one particular ministry which is not functioning properly. Fourth year in Goverment and yet the scams which were continuing from years are not yet discoved and loop wholes plugged. Yes it is finance misitry run by Arun Jaitley. Subramanium Swami calls him “Shakuni” another charector from Mahabharata. Shakuni had never fought any was and he was uncle (Mama) of Duryodhan. Jaitley has never won an election. He also Lost Delhi and Punjab when he was made incharge of these elections. He almost lost Guajrat which Modi barely saved by his last minute showmanship.

If elections are held today, BJP will lose power. It may become main opposition with some sort of corrupt coaliation in power. All for the one person who has real anti incumbancy against him. The finance minister. Will he do something different from here on? Or will PM Modi, sack him to dislodge anti incumbancy?

Arun Jaitley is an excellent lawyer and a brilliant person but his problem is he is not an economist. He can’t tell what is wrong just by looking at numbers and its mutual relationship. Under his watch scamsters like Neerav Modi continued to avail loan of bioons of rupee without collateral. A lawyer is generally not a good adminstrator either. Nor is Jaitley, as it appears from these scams. He is continuiing with same staff as it was under previous corrupt government yet those officials did not point out what loop wholes were created under previous government.

An article doubting about integrity of the Revenue Secretary working under finance ministry is here.

In any case, if possible an economist should have been first choice for finance ministry. A country which has recently lost it’s currency value by half need to relook at all the doors and windows from where seepage is causing it to fall. Belated creation of a team of economic advisors to Prime Minister which team is not brain storming on daily basis, scouting for the points of seepage in economy, is merely symbolic.

Problem of non performing assets of Banking sector is not something which can be ignored. The Government had apointed a committee under ex-CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General) of India Shri Vinod Rai to recommend reforms but if the newspapers have reported that Shri Rai has been seeking an appointment with Finance Ministry since June 2017 but has not been granted audiance. It is also reported that he has recently resigned. This does not bade well for the functioning Finance Minister.

Gains made with demonitisation are disappearing. It is back to cash business as usual. Again traders have started to refuse card and digital transfer, like ever before.

GST implementation remains as tardy as it was. GST council is not holding any public hearing. It soes not have a mechanism or a secratriat for feed back. Only influncial lobbies get an ear through finance minister who is as aloof as any government in the past. This is while may ministers can be approached on twitter and are resolving problems on twitter itself. Trading class is not happy, their employees are not happy. Middle Class are already unhappy with budget.

So is it writing on the wall?